MODEL SISTEM DINAMIK KETERSEDIAAN SINGKONG BAGI INDUSTRI TAPE DI KABUPATEN JEMBER

Abstract

As we know, fermented cassava (TAPE in indonesian language) is one of popular food in Jember Regency. There are a lot of fermented cassava industry at Jember Regency. One of the major problem for fermented cassava industry is decreasing of cassava production. The aim of this research was to design a dynamic system model of cassava availability for fermented cassava industry using dynamic system methods. Model of cassava availability consist of 3 sub models; model of supply, model of consumption and model of industrial demand. Based on simulation results it was known that in 2004-2013 the availability of cassava continues to decrease.The decreasing happenned because tape industry is only able to produce 60% of its maximum capacity. Therefore, it is needed to build scenarios that meet the needs of cassava for tape industries. The result shows four scenarios orientated to the model; 1. Scenario partnership, on this scenario the need of cassava for fermented cassava industry can be met, but make the needed cassava for consumption not fullfilled; 2. partnership scenario and acreage extension plant out as big as 2% per year, this scenario can't meet the need cassava for fermented cassava industry up to next 10 years; 3.The third scenario, partnership scenario and productivity step-up as big as 20 kw/ha is not overdose give influences even have can meet the need cassava next 10 years. The fourth scenario, partnership scenario and combined scenario, combination of scenarios 2 and 3, can supply cassava for the next 10 year.

Keywords: Dynamic System Model, production, availability, scenario