The Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Meteorological Draught Susceptability on Sampean Watershed

Abstract

Drought disasters that occur in the Sampean watershed from time to time have increased, both the intensity of events and the area affected by drought. The general objective of this research is to develop an assessment method for the impact of climate chan ge on vulnerability to drought disasters based on atmospheric circulation data. The specific objectives of this study are to model rainfall predictions based on atmospheric circulation data, predict rainfall in various climate change scenarios (Intergovernm ental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC – AR5), and assess vulnerability to drought disasters using a meteorological approach. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is one way to analyze the drought index in an area which was developed previous researcher. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is designed to quantitatively determine the rainfall deficit with various time scales. The advantage of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is that it is enough to use monthly rainfall data to compare drou ght levels between regions even with different climate types. To facilitate the presentation of the data base on the identification of d rought susceptibility, we need a system that can assist in building, storing, managing and displaying geographically ref erenced information in the form of spatial mapping. This research facilitates monitoring of the area of drought-prone areas, predicts drought levels, prevents future drought disasters, and prepares plans for rebuilding drought-prone areas in the Sampean watershed.