Pengaruh JUB, Suku Bunga, Inflasi, Ekspor dan Impor terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat

Abstract

Fluctuations of exchange rate against Rupiah to U.S Dollar which unstable are influenced the domestic and foreign’s economic
conditions. Macroeconomic conditions in the two countries both Indonesia and United States can make the exchange rate
depreciate or appreciate. The purpose of this research is to acknowledge the difference impact macro variables in both countries
Indonesia and the United States against the value on rupiah to US Dollar. Dynamic model is applied in this research that is
Partial Adjustment Model (PAM). This model is considered to existing inertia variable that is expectation of exchange rate
influence by the value of exchange rate that occurred previously. There are two analysis is descriptive analysis and causal
analysis. Causal is using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. OLS estimation of PAM shows all independent variable have
positive impact to the exchange rate expectation besides difference Export variable, in addition the difference of the interest rate
variable can’t influence the exchange rate significantly on important of the exchange rate expectation. In conclusion, the
interest rate policy is considered to influence the rupiah exchange rate if two countries do not change the interest rate
simultaneously and other macro policy variables must bring into line.